Season Long Props

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Sometimes you’ll see that my projection is higher than the Underdog projection…but the best pick will say lower. That’s because of injury risk. The projections assume a full 17 weeks (for most players), but that’s unrealistic to expect from everyone when doing season long pick’em. Because of that, some games missed are assumed for each player depending on their position, and that’s factored into what the best pick is.

This year I’m including all props that were available when I created the table (8/19). I would only pay attention to the top 75 as those are the highest EV bets. Anything past rank 75 has a very small, or even negative EV. I wanted to include them though so you could at least see what they were. I’m only going to track the top 75. The results from last season are below.

2023 Results (Top 100):
Overall Results: 56-44 -> 56%
QB Results: 16-19 -> 46%
RB Results: 19-13 -> 59%
WR Results: 19-9 -> 68%
TE Results: 2-3 -> 40%
Higher Record: 15-23 -> 39%
Lower Record: 41-21 -> 66%

2024 Results (Top 75):
Overall Results: 44-31 -> 59%
QB Results: 16-13 -> 55%
RB Results: 9-7 -> 56%
WR Results: 18-24 -> 43%
TE Results: 8-4 -> 67%
Higher Record: 17-27 -> 38%
Lower Record: 35-21 -> 62.5%
Top 10 Record: 7-3 -> 70%
Top 25 Record: 15-10 -> 60%
Top 50 Record: 27-23 -> 54%
Top 75 Record: 44-31 -> 59%