Super Bowl Breakdown
There’s really no strategy at this point of Survivor. If you’ve made it this far, you have either 1 or 0 teams left to use. So there’s no decision to make. Some of you are playing in a different style of league though where you have multiple uses of each team. Because of that, I’ll break down the game:
Chiefs @ Eagles (KC -1.5):
To be clear for anyone that doesn’t know, the game is not in Philly. The Eagles are “home” because someone has to be “home” but the game is in the Superdome in New Orleans. That’s noteworthy because we’ll have perfect conditions. Both of these teams have been playing in below 40 degree weather all playoffs, so there’s added ceiling to both sides. Especially with explosive players.
To start, my model thinks the line should be PHI -2. To be fair though, that’s truly not that far off from KC -2. Anything in that -2 to 2 range is basically a pick’em. I also want to note that my model is a notorious KC hater. It’s thought the Chiefs have been overrated all season, and to be fair, they mostly have been. They should have lost at least 3-4 games this season, so they’re objectively worse than their 1 loss record (in games they played their starters) indicates. Regardless, I wanted to note that because it always suggests taking the points on the other side of KC games. Personally, I think these are two evenly matched teams.
How the Eagles Win:
Saquon. The clearest path to a Philly SB run is through Saquon Barkley. The Eagles are averaging the 4th fewest passing yards per game and have been sacked at the 2nd highest rate in the league. The Chiefs technically grade out as a stronger run defense than pass defense, but they have an elite defensive coordinator that’s capable of really confusing Jalen Hurts. The Chiefs have also created the 5th fastest time to pressure in the league. So while they don’t necessarily lead the league in sack rate, when they do apply pressure, it happens really quickly. That’s an indication that they have elite individual pass rushers and also scheme up creative blitz packages that are capable of instant pressure. This is key because quick pressure also elevates the chances that Hurts makes a mistake. The Chiefs also have strong outside corners that can’t necessarily stop A.J. Brown, but who can do a good enough job slowing him down. The Eagles should lean on Saquon and Hurts on the ground and try to win this game through rushing efficiency. That’s not only how this offense has been winning so far this season, but it also increases the chances they remain turnover free, which of course matters much more when taking on a team like KC. The Eagles were 2nd in the NFL in turnover margin this season, but it only takes 1 or 2 to sink you when you’re taking on the Chiefs.
When Philly does pass, they need to keep their focus on the middle of the field. You simply don’t want to attack KC on the outside, so they should look for Dallas Goedert a lot over the middle, and they should also use A.J. Brown in the slot at elevated rates. Brown is good enough to win in any matchup, but he’s been a cheat code in the slot throughout his career. Unfortunately, he’s only run 63 of his 332 routes from the slot this season, as the Eagles have opted for DeVonta and Goedert to mostly operate on the inside. Put Brown in the slot and let him cook! At the end of the day though, my guess is they leave him on the outside, so this game will likely come down to how much Saquon can carry the offense, and if Brown can get loose deep on the outside.
How the Chiefs Win:
Mahomes and Reid. This is going to be a matchup for the ages! The Eagles have allowed the fewest passing yards per game this season, the fewest yards per pass play and also have allowed the 2nd lowest EPA/Pass. This is an elite pass defense, coupled with the 5th most efficient run defense. KC will definitely still run the ball with Pacheco and Hunt, but this game will be won or lost through Mahomes & Andy Reid. Can they scheme up enough creative play calls to create some explosive plays against the strongest pass defense in the league? My guess is yes. KC completely out game planed Buffalo last week and you know they’ll have something new for Philly.
Matchup wise, there’s no clear area for KC to attack. There are no real weak points against the Eagles, so look for them to opt for their regular gameplan. They’ll likely only gain around 3.5 Y/C on the ground (with RB’s) and will likely not be overly efficient through the air. But at the end of the day, KC has won 17 straight one score games. Their recent run has been one of the wildest things I’ve ever seen. They frequently look like the worse team, but somehow always seem to pull ahead and keep leads late. You can (rightfully at times) blame officiating for handing them wins, but this team just knows how to win.
Who Wins:
I think the Chiefs are going to win a close game. Likely within 3-4 points. Their ability to completely shut down Allen on multiple QB sneaks provides hope that they can stop the tush push. I just think this game will come down to 1-2 possessions in the 4th quarter, and that KC is built to win those sorts of games. These one possession games come down to executing down the stretch, and no team executes quite like KC.