Conf. Championships Advanced Matchup Stats

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The table below shows how much each team has limited production to different positions of the opposing team over the last 10 weeks. A positive number means that the defense gives up more production than expected. A negative number means they give up less production than expected. These numbers are also overall, and not per player. So a value of -2 under RB Rush Att doesn’t mean that every RB on the opposing team gets 2 fewer carries. It means that all of the RB’s on that team get a total of 2 fewer carries than expected.

That’s also another important point. These numbers aren’t compared to league average. So in our example, a value of -2 under RB Rush Att means that opposing teams have averaged 2 fewer RB rush attempts than expected (per game) over the last 10 games. This is calculated as (Actual – Expected), where expected is what the opposing team has averaged (trailing 10 games) entering that game. We have to do this so that we’re not punishing defenses for facing a brutal schedule. A team that faces Kamara, CMC and Ekeler is likely going to give up a lot of receptions to RB’s! It doesn’t mean they are bad at defending RB’s out of the backfield…it just means that they’ve faced a lot of really good receiving backs. So by comparing production to expected, we account for the strength of their opponents, and don’t unfairly punish teams for having brutal schedules.

Oh and one last note, all of this these stats are taken into account when you’re looking at the projections. So I’d use it as a tiebreaker when deciding between two players that are close…but don’t double count it by dropping a player a ton in the rankings because of a bad matchup. I’ve already included the drop if the matchup is poor.

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RB Y/C: Running Back Yards Per Carry Allowed Over Expected
RB Rush Yds: Running Back Rushing Yards Allowed Over Expected
RB Att: Running Back Rush Attempts Allowed Over Expected
RB Rec: Running Back Receptions Allowed Over Expected
RB Rec Yards: Running Back Receiving Yards Allowed Over Expected
RB Y/R: Running Back Yards Per Reception Allowed Over Expected
WR Tgt: Wide Receiver Targets Allowed Over Expected
WR Y/R: Wide Receiver Yards Per Reception Allowed Over Expected
WR Catch %: Wide Receiver Catch Percentage Allowed Over Expected
TE Tgt: Tight End Targets Allowed Over Expected
TE Y/R: Tight End Yards Per Reception Allowed Over Expected
TE Catch %: Tight End Catch Percentage Allowed Over Expected