Super Bowl Betting Model Predictions

My betting model is back up and running for the 2024 season! This page will post the exact predictions that the model makes each week!

Know this for early season predictions:
the model will slowly learn how each team changed over the offseason. But for week 1 it’s just assuming everything is the same last last season. So almost like it’s week 19. Then in week 2 it’ll still assume mostly last season’s numbers, but a little from week 1 will also be in there. Each week the model slowly learns how each team has changed, and by week 6 or 7 there’s almost no consideration as to how the teams were last season. I haven’t found any accuracy differences early in the season vs late in the season, so don’t worry about the predictions being super off early in the year.
How to best use the predictions:
The model is purely math based, trained on how good that team has been in the past (with a heavy focus on recent production). It has no concept of extremely short term changes though. So for week 1 it still thinks Aaron Rodgers plays for the Packers and that the Bucs have Brady starting at QB. Again, it will learn that these aren’t true over the first few weeks, but you need to understand that when looking at the predictions. That’s also the case for injuries. Let’s say Derrick Henry tears his ACL in week 4. The model is going to assume their run game is just as effective in week 5…but as they perform worse, it’s going to start taking that into account. My advice would be to look at the predictions, and then think about what pieces of news you know about that the model can’t. If you do that, you’ll be able to make the strongest bets possible!