WR Prospect Model

The table below shows the results of my new prospect model! I can’t give away all the secrets of the model…but here’s a quick explanation as to what you’re looking at, and where the data comes from!

Data:

Exp:

This is simply each players experience in the NFL thus far. So we have the incoming rookie class, anyone drafted last season (year 2), and WR’s drafted in 2022 (year 3).

Proj:

Proj is the most important column here! That displays the model’s prediction for how good of a FANTASY WR each player will be in the NFL! The model is trained on college WR data from 2000 through 2021, so that’s why those years don’t display here. Also, the model looks at more stats than I have listed on the table…but I’m not going to say what those are…for obvious reasons. Just know that everything is taken into account! How good each player was, how good their competition was, where they were drafted etc. The model is trained to project each players best season PPR PPG over their first 3 years in the league. This is NOT to be used as a projection for their rookie season. You can find that in the rankings or projection tabs. I would use this to evaluate how good each player will be in fantasy, compared to other WR’s from recent seasons.

Bull & Bear Comp:

I have a model that looks at athletic data and compares prospects over time. A player’s bull comp is an ideal outcome for that player. So if a player’s bull comp is Stefon Diggs, then the model is saying that they have the chance to reach Stefon Diggs level of production. Bull and Bear comps give you a good look at the potential range of outcomes for each player. Take Jonathan Mingo. His Bull comp is Deebo Samuel and his Bear comp is Laviska Shenault. So the model is saying that if all goes right for him…he could be used like, and post fantasy numbers similar to Deebo! Unfortunitely, he could also be the next Laviska Shenault (which seems to be the way things are heading after one season…).

Pick:

Where each player was taken (or is projected to be taken) in the draft.

Yard %:

This column represents the highest share each player has had of their teams total yards. So for example, if a player had 300 receiving yards and 100 rushing yards in a season…and their offense threw for 1,000 yards, and ran for 1,000 yards…then they would have accounted for 20% of the teams total yards (400/2000). Max here means each players best performance in college. So if they played for 3 seasons, then we’re looking at their best from all three years. Above 25% here is considered elite.

SRS:

SRS is a metric used to evaluate the strength of a college team. This column shows the SRS in each player’s best season (as measured by Max Yard %). So basically, in the year each prospect gained the highest percentage of their team’s yards, how good was their team? It’s more impressive when a prospect has a massive yardage share on an elite team. It’s less so when they do the same on a trash team. An SRS over 13-14 indicates an elite team. Below 3-4 indicates a fairly weak team.

Yds/Play:

Yards per team play is exactly what it sounds like! How many yards did the prospect have in a given season, as a function of how many plays were run overall. It’s more impressive to have 1,000 yards when your team ran 500 plays than it is if your team ran 1,000 plays. This column displays each player’s maximum yards/team play in their college career. Above 1.5 is elite. Below 0.75 isn’t great.

% of Team PPG:

This column shows what percent of their team’s overall fantasy points each prospect scored in their final season. Above 35% is elite. Below 15% is poor.

BOA:

This is the age each player was when they “broke out”. Break out here is when they first hit a 30% dominator rating. This metric grades out surprisingly high in predictability, but is incredibly predictive if coupled with being on a good team (SRS) and being taken early in the draft. Below 20 here is elite. A value of 25 means that player never hit a 30% dominator rating. That’s not the end of the world, but it’s not ideal.

Teammate Score:

This column displays the teammate score for a player in their final year of college. You might see teammate score referenced in other areas, but this is my own calculation for how I think it should be created. The idea here is that posting elite numbers on elite teams is great…but it’s even more impressive when you do so along side other NFL caliber WR’s! I won’t tell you how the calculation is done, but understand that a higher number here means that their production came alongside better WR’s. A score above 10 indicates elite WR’s, while a score below 3 indicates very little competition.

Draft Capital:

Until the NFL draft happens, I won’t have draft data for the 2024 & 2025 prospects. Because of that, I’m currently using projected draft capital, and I’ll update that as we move closer to the draft. Then once the draft happens I’ll update the model with the actual draft data. The model won’t be updated again after the draft data is added! That’s because it only uses college data and draft data. After that there’s nothing more to inform the model about.

The Combine:

The model does use combine metrics, though they don’t have a massive impact. Those have more of an impact on the poles (ie. if someone tests significantly better or worse than expected). I’ll add those to the model once we have those results, and I’ll update as we also get pro day numbers (for those who don’t go to the combine).