2024 Must Draft Players
Quarterbacks:
Patrick Mahomes:
Since 2018 Mahomes has been the QB: 1, 6, 2, 5, 3…and 14 in PPG. Last season’s drop was thanks to by far the lowest TD % of his career, along with his lowest yards per pass attempt. Simply put, the Chiefs had zero WR’s capable of winning deep downfield, and it showed. Heck, it took a while for Rashee Rice to break out and become their only WR that could win ANYWHERE on the field. This season, Rice is unlikely to be suspended, they traded for Marquise Brown and also drafted Xavier Worthy (the fastest WR in NFL history). The deep ball is coming back this season, and that makes Mahomes one of the safest picks you could possibly make. He might have a slightly lower 90th percentile ceiling than Allen and Hurts, but he’s going to be unbelievably consistent, and still has the upside to throw for 5,500 yards and 50 TD’s. I do think I prefer our next QB at cost, but you truly cannot go wrong with Mahomes this season. He’s going to have a monster year. Oh and if you happen to play in a 6 point passing TD league, then he’s the QB 1 by a mile.
Anthony Richardson:
If I was in a $10,000 buy-in league (I am not), I would try my hardest to draft Anthony Richardson. Yes, Richardson is risky. But league winners win championships far more than busts lose seasons. It’s easy to look back and blame certain players for why your team didn’t do well. But at the end of the day, those busts didn’t lose things for you. The fact that you didn’t hit on league winners is what lost it!
If you were to ask me who has the highest ceiling at the QB position is this season, then my easy answer is Anthony Richardson. To put his athleticism into context, imagine someone that’s heavier than Josh Allen, but is also faster than Lamar Jackson! He’s not only the single most athletic QB in the history of the NFL…he’s the 114th most athletic PLAYER in NFL history! And he’s paired with a coach that behind BOTH the Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts breakout seasons. Last year, Richardson got hurt. But not before he scored 29.9 fantasy points per 4 quarters. The Colts are going to play incredibly fast, and are going to throw it more than people think. Richardson has the upside to lead all PLAYERS in rushing TD’s this season. He will be a top 5 QB in any week he’s active, and yet you can get him in the 5th round on most platforms.
Jordan Love:
If I miss out on the two QB’s above, I’m going after Jordan Love. I feel like no one remembers, but he was the QB 5 in PPG last season. And honestly, he was incredible once he hit his stride! Remember, Love only had 83 career pass attempts entering last season. So no one thought he’d do much of anything. Over his first 8 weeks he averaged 215 passing yards per game, and had a 17 week pace of 30 TD’s to 17 INT’s. Then, he started to cook! Over the final 9 weeks Love averaged 271 passing yards per game, with a 17 week pace of 42 TD’s to 6 INT’s. He was the QB 16 in PPG through those first 8 games (17.7 PPG) and jumped all the way up to the QB 4 in PPG over the final 9 games (20.9 PPG). And the scary part…that was with Christian Watson banged up all season, Doubs still developing in his 2nd season, Aaron Jones banged up for most of the year and all of Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft being rookies! Now they upgraded Aaron Jones to Josh Jacobs (while also adding an explosive RB in the draft), Watson seems to have figured out his hamstring issues, Doubs is reportedly taken a massive step forward, and those rookies should take strong steps in their development as well! Oh, and the Packers have the easiest strength of schedule for QB’s this season. Jordan Love has elite upside this season, and you can take him after the initial wave of elite RB’s/WR’s & TE’s are all off the board. He’s an incredible pick!
Running Backs:
Jonathon Taylor:
As a rookie, JT gained 1,468 yards and scored 12 TD’s, despite playing at least 70% of the snaps just once. Then, in year 2, he set the world on fire. He turned 372 touches into 2,171 yards and scored a jaw dropping 20 TD’s at 22 years old! Since then, he’s been hit with the injury bug. In 2022 he had a 17 week pace of 1,685 yards…but he missed 7 games with multiple ankle injuries. Then last season he was never 100%. He started the season with an ankle injury and then ended the season with a torn ligament in his thumb. I want to be very clear that JT is NOT injury prone. RB is a brutal position, and he’s just been unlucky in recent seasons. This year, he’s the favorite to lead the NFL in carry share, is on an offense that should finish top 5 in plays. Oh and he’s still just 25 years old. A player like Jonathan Taylor should be a top 5 pick in drafts. But you can get him in the late 1st round in most platforms. With a lot of players, we talk about the potential for them to get 300 touches in a season. With JT, that would be my EXPECTATION. I see 1,800 yards and 15+ TD’s in his future this season.
De’Von Achane:
Devon Achane has such a wide range of outcomes this season. He could go off and finish as a top 5 RB, or he could average 10 touches a game and be someone you struggle to trust at RB 2. I struggle predict which version we’re going to see, but I’ll at least go out on a limb and say he won’t average 7.8 yards per carry! I think the main thing with Achane is just understanding the range of outcomes. He has a much bigger chance of busting than other picks this early, so make sure you account for that and draft some less risky players in the middle rounds. That’s not me trying to scare you off from drafting him (because he truly does have the ceiling to be the #1 scoring RB in all of fantasy football) just to make you aware that he’s not a lock to go off. He averaged just 11.8 touches per game last season, Mostert is still there, and Jaylen Wright (their rookie) is a RB I was very excited about during the draft process. At the end of the day, I lean ceiling with my picks. I’d rather go down swinging, because I know if I take enough shots at a player capable of being the RB 1 overall…that I’m eventually going to hit on someone that breaks fantasy scoring. Achane seems like he could be that player this season. If he gets 50% of the rushing work and 10% of the teams targets then he might outscore CMC.
Derrick Henry:
The first thing I want us to understand is that Derrick Henry is an outlier. He had the best high school career we’ve ever seen. Then he had one of the best college seasons we’ve ever seen. Now in the NFL he ranks 36th all time in rushing yards despite ranking 193rd in games played. Over the last 5 years he’s handled: 21.4, 24.8, 29.2, 23.9 and 18.1 touches per game. The 18.1 might seem like a sign of things to come, but it was more a function of the offense. The Titans ranked 27th in PPG last season and finished last in the division, winning just 6 games. Derrick Henry is great, but his kryptonite is that he’s the most game script dependent RB in NLF history. In wins he’s the RB 1 overall, scoring 22.9 PPG. In losses…he’s a low end RB 2…scoring just 12.3 PPG. This season he joins a Ravens offense that’s projected to score the 9th most PPG this season, and no team has a higher projected win total. In other words, one of the best RB’s we’ve ever seen will be playing for the number 1 rushing offense in the NFL. He’s also the unquestioned goal line back, as his biggest competition is Justice Hill (sub 200 pounds and just 6 TD’s in 4 years) and Keaton Mitchell (sub 180 pounds coming off a torn ACL). Oh and Rasheen Ali, their late 5th round rookie who just failed to score given 3 goal line attempts in their first preseason game. Derrick Henry has 20 TD upside, and is a virtual lock to score 12 TD’s. I truly am not worried that he’s 30 years old now. Plenty of RB’s have produced past the age of 29, and we saw no drop off in his underlying stats last season. I mean my goodness, Raheem Mostert just finished as the RB 2 at 31 last season thanks to 21 TD’s! Oh and I forgot the best part! Usually a pick this good will cost a top 5 pick. Or at best a late first round pick. But you can get him as the 8th RB off boards in the mid 2nd round on most platforms!
Isiah Pacheco:
Pacheco has everything going for him this season. The Chiefs have a top 7 offensive line, a top 5 offense & the best QB in the NFL. No team will ever be able to load the box against the Chiefs, especially with the deep threats they’ve added this offseason. Pacheco has been awesome in his first two seasons, but what’s held him back from being a high end RB 1 is the receptions. In year 1 he was used VERY sparingly in the receiving game, and then last season was a mixed bag. The total receptions were there (44) but he was unbelievably inefficient with just 5.5 Y/R. I do think that efficiency will normalize this season, so I wouldn’t anticipate 5.5 Y/R again. The appealing part this season is Jerick McKinnon being gone. As of writing this (8/10), McKinnon has still not resigned with KC. Assuming he’s gone, Pacheco has the upside to be featured. McKinnon played 11 third down snaps per game last season and was also used as a red zone weapon, scoring 5 TD’s. Recently, Andy Reid was asked who he envisions taking that third down role. He said “Isiah Pacheco’s ready to be able to do all that. He’s good with the protections, he’s good with the technique and fundamentals, he can run all the routes, he’s got great hands.” If Pacheco becomes a featured RB, he’s going to have an incredibly high floor and ceiling each week. My last reason for hope is that he had 1,179 yards and 9 TD’s last season. But last year was historically low scoring for a Patrick Mahomes offense. KC was also 9-5 in the games Pacheco played, which is good, but not for KC. I expect them to score a lot more TD’s this season, and to be winning in the 4th quarter more often. Both are great news for Pacheco!
I’m redacting Pacheco. He’s fine, but is no longer a target for me. Carson Steele is a legitimate threat to short yardage work, while Perine is a real threat to third downs. If Pacheco loses those two then, even on the Chiefs, he’ll really struggle to return value at his ADP.
Josh Jacobs:
Josh Jacobs is a 26 year old RB that had over 2,000 yards just two years ago. This offseason, the Packers signed him to a 4 year $48 million dollar deal, giving him the 5th largest annual salary among RB’s, and is the 2nd highest total value for a contract. The Packers did this because they didn’t feel like Aaron Jones could hold up to the workload they needed him to, so they decided not to sign him to an extension. T say the Packers are heavily invested in Jacobs would be an understatement. So will he be good? I think he’s a virtual lock to outproduce his ADP if he stays healthy. The Packers are projected to score over 24 PPG this season, have an above average offensive line and a 10.5 win total. So they’re going to be winning a lot and scoring a lot of points. And if you look at his competition, it’s AJ Dillon, who’s seen his Y/C drop every season from 5.3 as a rookie, down to 4.3, then 4.1 and cratering to 3.4 last season. His other competition is MarShawn Lloyd, who people are concerned will be the next Aaron Jones. But Lloyd has barely practiced in camp, and has now reaggravated a hamstring injury. He also had a ton of issues with fumbles in college, and was more of a home run hitter than a consistent producer. He’ll mix in, but Jacobs has the upside to be closer to featured on one of the best offenses in football. Yet his average industry ADP is the round 3/4 turn. That’s A LOT of upside and a much cheaper price tag than we’re used to paying for a RB with this good of a floor/ceiling combo.
Joe Mixon:
Joe Mixon is a great pick this season. Dameon Pierce simply isn’t a good fit for their system, and I honestly think there’s a non 0 chance he’s traded away. That shouldn’t impact our view of Mixon though. He’s going to be featured on the ground, in the receiving game and in the red zone. He has elite TD upside on one of the best offenses in football and should have an extremely stable floor given that he can’t be scripted out of games. Draft Joe Mixon this season.
Jonathon Brooks & Chuba Hubbard:
Yes, I know Brooks is unlikely to play until week 4 or 5. Honestly, I think they’ll put him on the IR (4 games) and then slowly ramp him up after that. So this isn’t a play for early in the season. But for where you’re getting him, that’s ok! He’s going on average in round 8 in redraft, and honestly, my guess is he’ll finish in round 9 given the negative news around his return. At that point in the draft you don’t need your picks over the first month. What you’re getting with Brooks is a RB that has the upside to be a RB 1 over the final 8 weeks of the season! He’s the top RB prospect in this draft, and once healthy, will be featured. Dave Canales just ran an offense where Rachaad White was given the 2nd most touches in the entire NFL. And that was despite him being highly inefficient! Brooks is, by a mile, the best RB on this team. He’s a 3 down RB, and there truly are not very many of those in today’s NFL. The 2nd half of the fantasy season is SIGNIFICANTLY more important than the first half. In the first half more of your players are healthy, there are fewer bye weeks, and no playoff weeks. In the 2nd half you’ll have more injuries, more bye weeks, and ultimately the fantasy playoffs (which is really all that matters). Draft Brooks, keep him on your bench, and enjoy a 3rd or 4th round RB value in the 2nd half of the season.
Edit: I’m adding Chuba Hubbard to this pick. Brooks has been falling in drafts after news that he’d miss the first 4 weeks (even though we always knew that was possible). So he’s an elite value in drafts right now. I would make it a point to draft him, and then reach on Chuba Hubbard. You can start Chuba at RB 2 for the first 4-6 weeks, then Brooks after that. If you do that I think you’ll get RB 1 value across the entire season, yet it won’t cost you even RB 2 value!
Chase Brown:
Chase Brown didn’t do all that much as a rookie. But that was because he was playing behind Joe Mixon! Brown only played 3 total third down snaps last season, and really just took a back seat all year. He started to play his way onto the field late in the season though, and shows off clear explosiveness on his limited touches. This season, Mixon was gone, and they signed Zack Moss in FA. Now I like Zack Moss. But he’s not explosive, and honestly, might not be all that good. Chase Brown made major strides in his pass catching, and their coach said that he and Andrei Iosivas made the biggest improvements from year 1 into year 2. I think Brown and Moss will open the season in a split, but that Brown has the upside to earn the valuable third down role. If Brown can be the 1A on one of the best offenses in football, then he probably shouldn’t be available in the 10th round of drafts! At worst he’s an explosive 1B on one of the best offenses in football.
Tyjae Spears:
I’m willing to die on the hill that Spears is better than Tony Pollard. I 100% believe that Pollard was limited by his injury early last season, and I 100% do not care. I think Spears has the chance to be a special RB and that he’ll push Pollard for that 1A role. Regardless, I think they enter the season with a very close to even split. Pollard will likely open as the 1A to Spears’ 1B, but only in like a 55%-45% split. After week 1 I think they’ll entirely go with the hot hand. That might be a little frustrating at times, but remember that this team is going to throw the ball a ton! The Titans brought in Brian Callahan from the Bengals. He was the Bengals OC for the last 5 seasons and is now their head coach. I know we’re all used to the Titans playing super slow, and leaning super run heavy…but those days are long gone! The pace and pass attempts will be way up this season! So whichever one of these backs is on the field more in passing situations is going to have a ton of value. Last season, Spears commanded 1 more target than Pollard despite running 109 fewer routes! He was also significantly more efficient with those targets! Spears was also a prospect we loved coming out of college, we just knew it would take him a while to break out since he was playing behind Derrick Henry. I think the breakout happens this season. As Jacob Gibbs pointed out, the Bengals (under Callahan) ran a ton of shotgun and man/gap run concepts. Spears was the single most effective man/gap rusher in the last 8 draft classes, while dominating from shotgun in college. If he can earn 60% of this backfields volume, he’s going to shatter his ADP.
Jaleel McLaughlin:
Sean Payton backfields have finished top 2 in RB PPG in 9 of his 12 seasons. Why? Because his offenses target the RB’s at an unreal rate! Last season they lead the league by a mile in RB targets per game. The team now cut Perine, who had 50 receptions and replaced him with Estime (who I like, but isn’t a pass catcher). McLaughlin has 60 reception upside this season and it’s like no one cares. Oh, and he was the best RB in college football history with 8,166 rushing yards and 79 rushing TD’s in college. He has Alvin Kamara level upside this season.
Braelon Allen:
Braelon Allen has the 2nd highest height adjusted speed score in this class…and it’s very easy to see that when he runs! This man is going to be a problem to bring down. The Jets drafted him in the late 4th round in the hopes he could back up Breece Hall…and boy does it look like he can! He’s been dominating in camp, and looks incredible so far in the preseason. Given that, combined with how disappointing their other backups have been, and you start to realize that Braelon Allen is one of the highest upside handcuffs you can have in fantasy! I’m not quite sure he reaches the levels of Corum or Allgeier…but he’s right behind them in terms of potential value! He’d be a weekly must start if Hall got hurt, and there’s a world where they mix him in each week to keep Hall fresh and healthy. He goes FAR too late on all platforms.
Audric Estime:
Drafting Estime is not for the faint of heart. Or even for those of you in 10 team leagues that don’t have deep benches. For those who need deeper fliers though, Estime has a lot of potential. My model projects him as the 5th best RB in this draft class, and Sean Payton was ecstatic to have gotten him in the draft. That’s valuable, because Sean Payton backfields have finished top 2 in RB PPG in 9 of his 12 seasons! His backfields are HIGHLY productive in fantasy, so hitting on their most valuable RB is important! I do think Javonte Williams will open as their lead back, and I do think he’s the most likely to lead this team. But don’t count Estime out of that battle! He’s a unit, and if he can carve out an early down role then he’s one injury away from being a weekly must start!
Wide Receivers:
Garrett Wilson:
Garrett Wilson may have just turned 24, but he’s already one of the best WR’s in the NFL. There are maybe a handful of WR’s who are better against man coverage, which is scary when paired with Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers will lock onto a WR and pepper them with targets if they’re getting open. Wilson’s issue last season wasn’t that he couldn’t get open…it’s that he was always open, but no one could throw him the ball! Zach Wilson is, by a mile, the worst QB in the NFL. Garrett Wilson has never actually played with a competition QB, so people can’t envision how high the ceiling is. I think we’re about to see a peak Davante Adams like season. Mike Williams won’t be 100% for a good chunk of the year, Malachi Corley is just a gadget player, Xavier Gipson is just a role player and Allen Lazard is bad. No WR in the history of the NFL has commanded more targets over their first two seasons than Garrett Wilson. I expect that to continue this season, but for the targets skyrocket in efficiency.
Cooper Kupp:
In 2021 Cooper Kupp broke fantasy. He had 145 receptions for 1,947 yards and 16 TD’s. Then, over the first 9 weeks of 2022 he was on pace for 153 receptions, 1,728 yards ad 13 TD’s. It was the best season, and a half stretch we’ve ever seen from a wide receiver. In terms of fantasy scoring, no WR in the history of the NFL had a more consistently dominant stretch for a season and a half. Then he suffered a high ankle sprain which forced him to miss the rest of the 2022 season. Last year, he suffered a hamstring injury in camp, an ankle injury after that, and never got even close to 100%. I know Puka had a dominant season last year. But we really do need to remember that Kupp was banged up all season. When healthy, Kupp has proven that he can post some of the most dominant stat lines we’ve ever seen. By all accounts he’s healthy now, and if it stays that way, then you’re getting a MASSIVE discount on him in drafts. It’s not very often we can draft players where if they stay healthy they’re close to a lock to be a league winner. But that’s the case with Kupp. And on some platforms it won’t even cost you a pick in the first 3 rounds.
Nico Collins:
Nico Collins had a monster breakout last season. He had 80 receptions for 1,297 yards a 8 TD’s, even while missing 2 games and playing just 5 snaps in another. His underlying metrics were elite as well, ranking in the 94th percentile vs man and the 96th percentile vs press. He’s an elite WR, and he has scary upside long term being tied to CJ Stroud. One big concern is his target ceiling though. Diggs is on the decline, but he’s still going to command a strong target share. Then Tank Dell surpassed all expectations last season, and actually outproduced Collins while the two were healthy. I’m still drafting Nico though. He proved last season that he’s one of the best WR’s in the NFL, and he’s clearly the best true X WR on this team. His weekly and season long ceiling is unreal, and it’s possible that getting these other WR’s back healthy just makes it so that teams can’t focus on slowing Nico down! He’s a fantastic pick this season and is NOT a one year wonder.
Malik Nabers:
Malik Nabers ADP in redraft is a joke. He goes outside the top 45 picks on all major platforms despite having a chance to finish top 5 in target share among all players this season! He’s going to be the entire Giants offense, which will lead to a lower TD ceiling than we’d like (since the Giants are bad) but the potential target share is jaw dropping. Nabers has 92nd percentile speed, 98th percentile burst, and is unreal at creating yards after the catch. All they have to do is get him the ball, and he’ll put on a show! He might be behind MHJ as a prospect. But that’s sort of an unfair comparison. He’s the 2nd best prospect we’ve seen the past 2 years, and that includes the likes of: Garrett Wilson, Drake London, Chris Olave and Jameson Williams! He’s going to shatter his redraft league ADP.
DeVonta Smith:
It’s not that DeVonta Smith has had a bad first three seasons, because he certainly has not! I just feel like he’s on the precipice of exploding and hasn’t quite gotten there. He was a very highly regarded prospect coming into the NFL, but many people were concerned about his size (6’0” 170 pounds). My model usually tanks players at that low a weight, but it realized how gifted of a player he truly is. Since entering the league, he’s put all of his doubters to shame! He’s missed just one game in his career due to injury, and this last season he posted an 82nd percentile success rate vs press coverage! Entering year 4, he gets a situational upgrade at OC. Kellen Moore is going to increase the pace and the pass play rate of the Eagles offense. He’s also going to use DeVonta Smith in the slot more, which will create insane mismatches for him! There’s a world where Smith is used in the CeeDee Lamb role, and yet there are on average 19 WR’s that people will draft before him. He’s an incredibly safe pick, but one that also comes with a league winning ceiling!
Calvin Ridley:
Calvin Ridley is set up exceptionally well this season. As I noted with Tyjae Spears above, people are not ready for how different this Titans offense is going to look. We’re used to seeing them play super slow and running the ball a ton. This season, they’re going to play with a lot more pace, and they’re going to lean VERY pass heavy in situation neutral spots. This team might very well finish top 5 in pass play percentage, after finishing bottom 5 for the last decade! With Hopkins dealing with a knee injury, Ridley will have all of camp to develop his chemistry with Will Levis, and really carve out a strong role for himself on offense. Brian Callahan has also talked about using Ridley in the “Ja’Marr Chase Role” where he gives him more “layup routes”. The issue with Ridley last season was that everything was hard. They asked him to win as a boundary X WR, so all of his yards were hard to earn. This season, he’ll see a ton more screen passes and shallow crossers. These are a great way to get the ball into the hands of your best playmakers instead of forcing them to always get open on their own. I love spending an early pick on RB, because Ridley (and many of the WR’s on this list) are such elite picks, and are amazing values in the middle rounds!
Chris Godwin:
Chris Godwin has always been an FFA favorite! We’ve liked him right out of college, and have stuck with him this entire time! The last two seasons have been a bit rough, but the opportunity has been there! He has 127, 142 and 130 targets over the last 2 seasons. That ranks 18th, 10th & 19th among WR’s. In terms of fantasy production, he’s been the WR 9, 20 & 38 in PPG. Many will see this drop as a decline in play, but that’s not the case! It’s been the TD’s, mixed with playing on the outside more often. Godwin only has 5 TD’s over the last 2 years combined despite ranking 19th and 9th in targets inside the 10 yardline these last two seasons! In fact, he had 3 more targets inside the 10 yardline than Mike Evans did last season! He was just wildly unlucky to only score once on those 11 targets! This season he’ll operate out of the slot more often where he’s been much more efficient over his career. Oh and the cherry on top? Their new OC Liam Coen was the former offensive coordinator for the Rams. He’s talked about Chris Godwin operating in the Cooper Kupp role. Sign me up for that!. He’s still in the prime of his career at just 28 years old, and if he gets some TD luck to finally go his way, then we’re all going to be laughing at his ADP as the 34th WR off boards.
Diontae Johnson:
Diontae Johnson is one of the best WR’s in the NFL. I know it doesn’t seem like it, but he is. He ran every single route at an above average success rate last season, clearing the 81st percentile in success rate vs man, zone and press. He’s a true X WR, and that’s why the Panthers targeted him in FA. That’s a very important role in a Dave Canales offense (just ask Mike Evans) and is something the Panthers desperately needed. NO ONE was getting open last season. They needed to pepper a 33 year old Adam Thielen with 137 targets just to crawl their way to 13.9 PPG. This season, the passing offense will be centered around Diontae, and they have a head coach that was the mastermind behind the Geno Smith breakout in 2022 and the Baker Mayfield breakout last season. I don’t think the Panthers will all of a sudden be an elite offense. But they don’t have to be for Diontae to shatter his ADP. They could again score 13.9 PPG and he’d pay off his ADP of the WR 38. Adam Thielen was the WR 11 through week 11 last season before the wheels started to fall off (again, he was 33). But even he finished 31st in PPG! I truly think Diontae could finish top 7 in targets this season, and that he absolutely has a top 12 WR finish in his range of outcomes.
Jakobi Meyers:
Jakobi Meyers is wildly underpriced. Last season he opened hot, pacing for over 100 receptions and 14 TD’s through week 7. He cooled off after that, but still finished with a strong 71 reception, 807 yard 8 TD stat line. That was good enough for him to finish 25th in PPG. It was his third consecutive season averaging at leas 6.6 targets per game and over 50 receiving yards per game. He also came alive as a red zone threat for the first time! He ranked 16th among all players with 9 targets inside the 10 yardline, good for a very strong 25.7% share of team targets in that range. This season, he’s apparently had a fantastic camp and is again the locked in 2nd target behind Adams. I think people are scared to take him too early because of Brock Bowers, but I wouldn’t be. Meyers is a great WR that’s going to maintain a very strong target share. So getting him as the 54th WR off boards is unreal value!
Ricky Pearsall:
Pearsall is obviously the lowest confidence bet among the WR’s. But you’re getting him as the WR 68, so that makes sense. This late in the draft, there’s no reason to play it safe. If you could promise me that someone ends up 45th in PPG…then I’d want 0% of them as the WR 68. That might feel really strange, but it’s correct. Think about it! You know that this is someone you’re not starting on a championship team. We have the data to prove that upside wins championships. Hitting on a high end bench player simply does not move the needle, even if it came at a low ADP. You have to hit on someone that SHATTERS their ADP for them to truly make a difference. Pearsall has that upside. He’s got an elite head coach, a quality QB, and potential opportunity on the depth chart (either through an Aiyuk trade, or someone getting hurt, which happens every year on SF). He also has first round draft capital, which is something most of the draft community is overlooking. Kyle Shanahan spent a first round pick on this kid! He clearly sees potential, and yet he’s not drafted anywhere near the other first round rookie WR’s (besides Legette, who’s currently the WR 4 on the Panthers depth chart). I’m not saying Pearsall is a lock to go off, especially if he can’t stay healthy. But the opportunity is clearly there, and the opportunity cost of taking him is incredibly low. It’s worth the risk IMO because there truly isn’t any risk! If he does nothing and has no role early in the season then just drop him for whoever’s hot on waivers!
Tight Ends:
Mark Andrews:
Since 2019 Mark Andrews has been the TE 4, 4, 1, 3 and 4 in PPG. He’s also just turning 29 in September, which is well before the age cliff for TE’s. Everyone is excited about these young TE’s, and rightfully so, they’re awesome! But I think it has people overlooking how good we KNOW Andrews is. Like, what if the next Mark Andrews is simply Mark Andrews? Mark Andrews was a top 28 pick in each of the last two seasons, but now you can get him on average with pick 45, simply because people are bored of him and he’s coming off a season where he got injured. I know these young TE’s are exciting, but please don’t forget about old reliable! The biggest predicter of success is past success. And Mark Andrews has been a high end fantasy producer for a long time now. He’s a great pick.
Dalton Kincaid:
Don’t let Sam LaPorta’s unreal rookie season distract you from the fact that Dalton Kincaid just had the 4th most receptions of any rookie TE in the history of the NFL. The fact that LaPorta happened to finish first in the exact same year shouldn’t take away from how impressive that is. And how about we make things better! Only the Chargers have more available targets than the Bills this season! If you add up all the targets they lost because of people leaving in free agency, it totals 317! There are 317 targets up for grabs in this offense, and they definitely did not add enough players to command all of those! Keon Coleman & Curtis Samuel should have good seasons, but 317 is a massive number. What’s even more exciting are the red zone targets! They’re missing over 55% of their red zone targets from last season! That was what held Kincaid back from being a high end producer last season, so if he gets more involved in that area this year then his upside is immense! He has a legitimate 100 reception ceiling this season, and if the TD’s start flowing, then he’s going to carry teams to the playoffs given his ADP. It’s not like he goes in the later rounds, but if you can get him in round 5 then that’s great value being paired with 4 elite skill players. He’s definitely less of a sure thing than Andrews, but I do think his ceiling is higher.
Kyle Pitts:
If Andrews and Kincaid aren’t risky enough and you really need to feel something, then may I introduce you to everyone’s favorite TE! Pitts was the most hyped TE prospect of all time, and for good reason! He was either the best or 2nd best prospect we’ve ever seen! He then went out there and had the 2nd most receiving yards ever for a rookie TE, behind only Mike Ditka. Even Sam LaPorta last season fell 137 yards short of Kyle Pitts rookie season total. So why does everyone hate him? Well, because of what happened after that! He’s averaged just 38 receiving yards per game since his rookie season, and has scored 5 TD’s in 27 games. Tough to blame him though! He had just 3 targets inside the 10 yardline last season, which was just one more than Scotty Miller and McCole Pruitt. The Falcons had arguably the best TE prospect in the history of the NFL, and they truly just did not care. Well, Arthur Smith is gone now, and so are their scrub QB’s. They’ve got Kirk Cousins steering the ship now, and if he falls apart, then I’m honestly kind of excited to see how Michael Penix Jr. would look in this offense (it would for sure be a downgrade, but I’d be excited none the less)! The new coaching staff has acknowledged how valuable Pitts can be to this offense, and camp reports have confirmed that this will be a much more pass heavy offense. So if the plays are up, the pass attempts are up, the scoring is up, and the targets are a lot more efficient, then we could be looking at a monster season for Pitts! All at a very reasonable price tag of the 59th overall pick on average! I really do believe that he’s been slowed by injuries these last two years, and that the horrible coaching and QB play took its toll. Everything should improve this season, and I’m excited to see how Pitts is going to look in this new offense! I’m not willing to give up on a TE that still hasn’t turned 24 yet. Travis Kelce’s first catch in the NFL came when he was nearly 24.5 years old. Pitts still has a long career ahead of him, and I think this is the year people will remember that.
T.J. Hockenson:
Hockenson is certainly a risky pick, and there’s no way he’ll start the season healthy. With that being said, if you have a deeper bench (at least 7 bench spots) or an IR spot (or 2 would be amazing!) then he’s worth taking a shot on. I genuinely believe that McCarthy is going to be good when he finally starts, and that might coincide with when Hockenson is getting ramped up. Right now he’s the 14th TE off boards, being drafted at pick 122 on average. I do think that ADP will slip as it becomes clear he won’t be healthy to start the season, and if it does, I do think we should take shots on him. This is a TE that’s fully capable of averaging 5-6 receptions for 50-60 yards a game over the 2nd half of the season, which is not something you can say about practically every single TE going in the double digit rounds. There are VERY few late round TE’s that have upside this season, so if you can afford to wait on Hockenson until week 8 or 9, then he’s going to gain a lot of value by that point. Then you can either trade him (or your starter) or roll with him as your guy! Also side note, the single best thing you can do at TE is trade them away. Every single TE last season besides Sam LaPorta had a higher playoff rate of you drafted them and then got rid of them instead of keeping them. TE is such a TD dependent position that if someone spikes, epically for a few weeks in a row, then you should absolutely be looking to trade them. It’s even more important to do so if you don’t think they’ll finish as a top 3 TE.
Noah Fant:
I know. Noah Fant has been hyped up basically every season, and then he always fails. He’s never had more than 45 receiving yards per game and he’s never had more than 4 TD’s in a season. So why could this be the year? When looking for a late round breakout TE you need one of 2 things. Either elite athleticism, or TD luck. But ideally both! Fant has always had the athleticism. He has a 97th percentile speed score, a 97th percentile bust score, a 96th percentile agility score and a 98th percentile catch radius. In fact, he’s the 12th most athletic TE of all time! Oh and he’s still just 26, so he’s in the prime of his career. So why has he never hit? Well, there’s actually a third component that you need for a breakout. Playing time. You NEED a high end snap share to finish as an elite TE. Fant has had that at times in his career, but especially on the Seahawks that hasn’t been the case. We can’t really know if it’ll happen this season, but we do know that Colby Parkinson and Will Dissly are both gone. Fant is now being backed up by Pharaoh Brown, Tyler Mabry and Brady Russell. Their new OC Ryan Grubb is also someone that used 3 WR sets a ton in college, and it seems like they’ll utilize that (correctly so) far more often this season. If they do, and Fant wins the clear lead TE role, then he could hit a 75+% snap share on a team that’ll be more pass heavy than people think! I don’t think he has truly league winning upside since he has 3 fantastic WR’s to content with…but that’s just sort of how the cookie crumbles this season. Fant and maybe Jonnu Smith are the only late round TE’s that even have a chance at a high end fantasy outcome in the later rounds. Maybe one of the Packers TE’s too if the other one tears their ACL. This is a season where I want a top 7 TE, and if I don’t get that, I’ll try to double dip on 2 of Musgrave/Hockenson/Fant/Jonnu/Kraft late. Ferguson almost made the list and I’d be cool with him too. But I really do want a top 7 TE, with the 3 above being my favorites.